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Portfolio performance report

Long-term portfolio

Generated August 26, 2026 at 8:16 PM UTC · benchmarked against SPY

Portfolio return
+15.9%
SPY return
+11.6%
Excess return
+4.3%
Maximum drawdown
-12.7%

Performance

Returns, benchmark comparison, and relative performance.

Performance by timeframe

Returns for all history.

Portfolio and benchmark returns by period
PeriodPortfolioSPYExcessAlpha
1D-0.1%+0.3%-0.5%-0.4%
7D0.0%-0.2%+0.2%+0.1%
30D-6.9%+3.7%-10.6%-9.2%
3M+0.3%+2.7%-2.4%-1.5%
6M+13.0%+10.5%+2.5%+4.1%
All+15.9%+11.6%+4.3%+6.3%

Cumulative growth

  • Portfolio
  • SPY
Portfolio and SPY cumulative price performanceGrowth of 100 for the portfolio and SPY from Jan 5, 2026 through Aug 25, 2026.+30.0%+19.8%+9.6%-0.6%-10.8%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Daily Returns

Daily percentage return beside SPY.

  • Portfolio
  • SPY
Portfolio and SPY daily returnsGrouped daily price-return bars for the portfolio and SPY from Jan 5, 2026 through Aug 25, 2026.+5.8%+2.3%-1.3%-4.8%-8.3%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Daily Out/Under-Performance

Portfolio return minus SPY return. Positive bars indicate outperformance.

Daily excess return against SPYDaily portfolio return minus SPY return. Positive bars indicate outperformance and negative bars indicate underperformance.+6.0%+2.2%-1.6%-5.3%-9.1%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Daily Alpha

Portfolio daily return minus β × SPY return. Early observations use the first valid beta; later observations use the trailing beta estimated for each date.

Daily alpha against SPYDaily portfolio return after subtracting beta-adjusted SPY return. Latest beta is 0.66, estimated from 160 comparable returns in the latest trailing window.+6.0%+2.3%-1.5%-5.2%-8.9%Jan 6, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Cumulative Out/Under-Performance

Relative wealth over all history: compounded portfolio wealth divided by compounded SPY wealth, less one. Both series rebase at the selected span's start.

Cumulative excess return against SPYPortfolio wealth divided by SPY wealth, less one. Positive values indicate cumulative outperformance and negative values indicate cumulative underperformance.+21.2%+13.4%+5.7%-2.0%-9.7%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Cumulative Alpha

Compounded beta-adjusted residual returns apply the first valid beta to early observations, then the trailing beta ending on each date.

Cumulative alpha against SPYCompounded daily portfolio return after subtracting beta-adjusted SPY return. Latest beta is 0.66, estimated from 160 comparable returns in the latest trailing window.+22.3%+14.3%+6.3%-1.7%-9.7%Jan 6, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Holdings

Holdings

Current portfolio allocation: AAPL 100.0%AAPL100.0%
100.0%allocated

Current allocation across 1 position.

Composition

sector allocation: Manufacturing 100.0%Manufacturing100.0%
100%classified
industry group allocation: Industrial & Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment 100.0%Industrial &CommercialMachinery andComputer Equipment100.0%
100%classified
industry allocation: ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS 100.0%ELECTRONICCOMPUTERS100.0%
100%classified

Valuation

P/E allocation: 25–40x 100.0%25–40x100.0%
35.1xportfolio P/E
P/B allocation: 10x+ 100.0%10x+100.0%
42.1xportfolio P/B
P/S allocation: 5–10x 100.0%5–10x100.0%
9.7xportfolio P/S

Position details

Weights and percentage gains only.

Current portfolio holdings
HoldingWeightToday G/LTotal G/L
AAPL+100.0%-0.1%+15.9%

Holdings over time

Historical allocation is expressed as portfolio percentages.

  • AAPL
Holding weights over timeEach invested date is normalized to 100 percent. Stacked areas show the portfolio weight of AAPL from Jan 5, 2026through Aug 25, 2026.+100%+75%+50%+25%0%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Hover or drag to inspect a date. Tap or click to pin it; select it again to release it.

Trade activity

Executed buys and sells in the selected analysis period.

Trades

Trade size is shown only as a percentage of account value. Execution price remains visible.

Shared portfolio trade activity
DateActionTickerPriceAccount size
Jan 5, 20261/5/26buyAAPL$267.26+100.0%
Mar 2, 20263/2/26sellAAPL$264.72+25.0%

Return analytics

Return, risk, drawdown, consistency, and benchmark metrics from completed daily return periods.

Analysis span
All history · Jan 5, 2026 to Aug 25, 2026
Portfolio periods
161
Comparison periods
161
Regression sample
Full analysis span · 160
Total return+15.9%Compounded over the measured history
CAGR+26.0%Annualized compounded return
Volatility+27.4%Annualized daily-return variability
Sharpe0.84Return per unit of total risk
Sortino1.18Return per unit of downside risk
Max drawdown-12.7%Largest peak-to-trough decline

Alpha, sensitivity, and capture

All relative metric cards use the latest trailing regression window (full analysis span; 160 comparable returns).

Alpha+13.5%Annualized CAPM residual return
Beta0.66Sensitivity to benchmark moves
Correlation0.33Daily return relationship
R-squared10.9%Variation explained by benchmark
Tracking error+26.2%Annualized active-return volatility
Information ratio0.33Active return per unit of tracking error
Up capture50.3%Participation when benchmark rose
Down capture72.3%Participation when benchmark fell

Analysis-span relative wealth and CAPM residual

Relative wealth is rebased at the start of all history. The CAPM residual uses a trailing beta estimated separately for each return date (full analysis span).

  • Relative wealth
  • CAPM residual
Analysis-span relative wealth and CAPM residualAll history relative wealth for Long-term portfolio against SPY. The beta-adjusted CAPM residual begins once the trailing regression window is available (full analysis span).+22.7%+14.5%+6.4%-1.7%-9.8%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Return and risk

Ratios use completed daily returns from all history.

Detailed return and risk metrics for the portfolio and benchmark
MetricLong-term portfolioSPY
Total return+15.9%+11.6%
CAGR+26.0%+18.7%
Annualized volatility+27.4%+13.6%
Sharpe ratio0.841.04
Sortino ratio1.181.53
Maximum drawdown-12.7%-9.1%
Calmar ratio2.042.04
Ulcer index+5.8%+2.5%
Positive-period rate52.8%52.8%
Best period+4.8%+2.9%
Worst period-7.4%-2.6%
Average daily return+0.1%+0.1%
Average gain+1.3%+0.7%
Average loss-1.2%-0.6%
Payoff ratio1.061.11
Profit factor1.191.25
Daily VaR (95%)-2.2%-1.5%
Daily CVaR (95%)-4.0%-1.8%
Tail ratio1.330.94
Skew-0.60-0.02
Excess kurtosis2.870.93
Longest gain streak47
Longest loss streak44

Drawdowns

Each line shows distance below its own high-water mark within all history.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Portfolio and benchmark drawdowns over timePeak-to-trough decline for Long-term portfolio and SPY. Zero marks a new high-water mark.+1.0%-2.7%-6.4%-10.0%-13.7%Jan 5, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Long-term portfolio

Worst drawdown episodes for Long-term portfolio
RankDepthStartedTroughRecoveredDuration
1-12.7%Jun 3, 20266/3/26Jun 25, 20266/25/2622 days to troughJul 9, 20267/9/2614 days from trough36 days
2-11.3%Feb 9, 20262/9/26Mar 30, 20263/30/2649 days to troughMay 1, 20265/1/2632 days from trough81 days
3-11.1%Jul 29, 20267/29/26Aug 12, 20268/12/2614 days to troughOngoing27 days
4-7.7%Jan 5, 20261/5/26Jan 20, 20261/20/2615 days to troughFeb 2, 20262/2/2613 days from trough28 days
5-3.6%Jul 20, 20267/20/26Jul 23, 20267/23/263 days to troughJul 27, 20267/27/264 days from trough7 days
6-2.0%May 29, 20265/29/26Jun 1, 20266/1/263 days to troughJun 2, 20266/2/261 days from trough4 days
7-1.2%May 4, 20265/4/26May 4, 20265/4/260 days to troughMay 5, 20265/5/261 days from trough1 days
8-0.8%May 18, 20265/18/26May 18, 20265/18/260 days to troughMay 20, 20265/20/262 days from trough2 days
9-0.8%Jul 14, 20267/14/26Jul 14, 20267/14/260 days to troughJul 15, 20267/15/261 days from trough1 days
10-0.3%Jul 10, 20267/10/26Jul 10, 20267/10/260 days to troughJul 13, 20267/13/263 days from trough3 days

SPY

Worst drawdown episodes for SPY
RankDepthStartedTroughRecoveredDuration
1-9.1%Jan 28, 20261/28/26Mar 30, 20263/30/2661 days to troughApr 15, 20264/15/2616 days from trough77 days
2-4.5%Jun 3, 20266/3/26Jun 10, 20266/10/267 days to troughAug 4, 20268/4/2655 days from trough62 days
3-2.5%Jan 13, 20261/13/26Jan 20, 20261/20/267 days to troughJan 27, 20261/27/267 days from trough14 days
4-2.0%Aug 14, 20268/14/26Aug 20, 20268/20/266 days to troughOngoing11 days
5-1.9%May 15, 20265/15/26May 19, 20265/19/264 days to troughMay 26, 20265/26/267 days from trough11 days
6-0.9%Apr 20, 20264/20/26Apr 21, 20264/21/261 days to troughApr 22, 20264/22/261 days from trough2 days
7-0.5%Apr 28, 20264/28/26Apr 29, 20264/29/261 days to troughApr 30, 20264/30/261 days from trough2 days
8-0.4%Apr 23, 20264/23/26Apr 23, 20264/23/260 days to troughApr 24, 20264/24/261 days from trough1 days
9-0.4%May 4, 20265/4/26May 4, 20265/4/260 days to troughMay 5, 20265/5/261 days from trough1 days
10-0.4%Aug 5, 20268/5/26Aug 6, 20268/6/261 days to troughAug 7, 20268/7/261 days from trough2 days

Rolling risk and efficiency

6 months windows use exactly 126 completed return periods. Alpha and beta use full analysis span trailing regression windows.

Rolling alpha

Annualized CAPM residual return within each window.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY alpha reference
  • Long-term portfolio average
  • SPY alpha reference average
Rolling annualized alphaFull analysis span trailing regression windows annualized alpha against SPY.+39%+28%+18%+8%-3%Jul 7, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Rolling beta

How strongly returns moved with the benchmark in each window.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY beta reference
  • Long-term portfolio average
  • SPY beta reference average
Rolling betaFull analysis span trailing regression windows beta against SPY.1.030.930.830.730.63Jul 7, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Rolling volatility

Annualized variability of daily return periods.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
  • Long-term portfolio average
  • SPY average
Rolling annualized volatilityRolling annualized volatility for Long-term portfolio and SPY.+31.6%+23.1%+14.6%+6.1%-2.3%Jul 7, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Rolling Sharpe

Excess return per unit of total variability.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
  • Long-term portfolio average
  • SPY average
Rolling Sharpe ratio6 months (126-period) Sharpe ratio for Long-term portfolio and SPY.2.41.81.10.5-0.2Jul 7, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Rolling Sortino

Excess return measured only against downside variation.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
  • Long-term portfolio average
  • SPY average
Rolling Sortino ratio6 months (126-period) Sortino ratio for Long-term portfolio and SPY.3.72.71.70.7-0.3Jul 7, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Calendar returns

Calendar buckets use completed returns within all history.

LossGain
Monthly portfolio returns; each cell also identifies the benchmark return
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2026-2.9%-3%+1.8%+2%-4.0%-4%+6.9%+7%+15.0%+15%-7.3%-7%+6.8%+7%+0.3%0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Calendar-year comparison

Portfolio and benchmark returns are compounded independently within each year.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Portfolio and benchmark calendar-year returnsGrouped bars compare Long-term portfolio with SPY for each available calendar year.+17%+13%+8%+3%-1%2026 · Long-term portfolio: +15.89%2026 · SPY: +11.56%2026
Calendar-year portfolio and benchmark return comparison
YearLong-term portfolioSPYDifference
2026+15.9%+11.6%+4.3%

Return distribution

Counts, quartiles, and outliers use the selected return granularity within the report analysis window.

Return frequency

How often completed daily returns landed in each range.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Daily return distributionDensity of daily portfolio and SPY returns from -7.4%through +4.8%.0.025.049.9-7.35% to -6.74% · SPY: 0 periods-7.35% to -6.74% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-6.74% to -6.13% · SPY: 0 periods-6.74% to -6.13% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-6.13% to -5.52% · SPY: 0 periods-6.13% to -5.52% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-5.52% to -4.91% · SPY: 0 periods-5.52% to -4.91% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-4.91% to -4.31% · SPY: 0 periods-4.91% to -4.31% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-4.31% to -3.70% · SPY: 0 periods-4.31% to -3.70% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-3.70% to -3.09% · SPY: 0 periods-3.70% to -3.09% · Long-term portfolio: 3 periods-3.09% to -2.48% · SPY: 1 periods-3.09% to -2.48% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-2.48% to -1.87% · SPY: 1 periods-2.48% to -1.87% · Long-term portfolio: 6 periods-1.87% to -1.26% · SPY: 10 periods-1.87% to -1.26% · Long-term portfolio: 14 periods-1.26% to -0.65% · SPY: 15 periods-1.26% to -0.65% · Long-term portfolio: 18 periods-0.65% to -0.04% · SPY: 43 periods-0.65% to -0.04% · Long-term portfolio: 28 periods-0.04% to +0.57% · SPY: 49 periods-0.04% to +0.57% · Long-term portfolio: 30 periods+0.57% to +1.18% · SPY: 30 periods+0.57% to +1.18% · Long-term portfolio: 27 periods+1.18% to +1.79% · SPY: 8 periods+1.18% to +1.79% · Long-term portfolio: 9 periods+1.79% to +2.40% · SPY: 2 periods+1.79% to +2.40% · Long-term portfolio: 6 periods+2.40% to +3.01% · SPY: 2 periods+2.40% to +3.01% · Long-term portfolio: 9 periods+3.01% to +3.62% · SPY: 0 periods+3.01% to +3.62% · Long-term portfolio: 4 periods+3.62% to +4.23% · SPY: 0 periods+3.62% to +4.23% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+4.23% to +4.84% · SPY: 0 periods+4.23% to +4.84% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-7.4%Daily return+4.8%
Return range

Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.

Daily return range comparisonHorizontal daily return box plots for Long-term portfolio and SPY. The boxes span the middle fifty percent, center lines mark medians, whiskers end at the most extreme observations within one and a half times the interquartile range, and dots mark outliers.-8.3%-4.8%-1.3%+2.3%+5.8%
Long-term portfolio
SPY

Return quantiles

Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.

Selected daily return percentiles for portfolio and benchmark
PercentileLong-term portfolioSPY
0th-7.35%-2.58%
1st-5.45%-1.89%
5th-2.21%-1.52%
10th-1.75%-1.02%
25th-0.77%-0.34%
50th+0.13%+0.07%
75th+0.95%+0.59%
90th+2.24%+1.01%
95th+2.94%+1.42%
99th+4.03%+2.17%
100th+4.84%+2.91%

Return frequency

How often completed weekly returns landed in each range.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Weekly return distributionDensity of weekly portfolio and SPY returns from -8.0%through +8.8%.0.017.535.0-8.03% to -7.19% · SPY: 0 periods-8.03% to -7.19% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods-7.19% to -6.35% · SPY: 0 periods-7.19% to -6.35% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-6.35% to -5.51% · SPY: 0 periods-6.35% to -5.51% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-5.51% to -4.67% · SPY: 0 periods-5.51% to -4.67% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods-4.67% to -3.84% · SPY: 0 periods-4.67% to -3.84% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-3.84% to -3.00% · SPY: 0 periods-3.84% to -3.00% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-3.00% to -2.16% · SPY: 3 periods-3.00% to -2.16% · Long-term portfolio: 5 periods-2.16% to -1.32% · SPY: 5 periods-2.16% to -1.32% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods-1.32% to -0.48% · SPY: 3 periods-1.32% to -0.48% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-0.48% to +0.36% · SPY: 5 periods-0.48% to +0.36% · Long-term portfolio: 5 periods+0.36% to +1.20% · SPY: 10 periods+0.36% to +1.20% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+1.20% to +2.04% · SPY: 2 periods+1.20% to +2.04% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+2.04% to +2.88% · SPY: 2 periods+2.04% to +2.88% · Long-term portfolio: 5 periods+2.88% to +3.72% · SPY: 3 periods+2.88% to +3.72% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+3.72% to +4.56% · SPY: 1 periods+3.72% to +4.56% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+4.56% to +5.40% · SPY: 0 periods+4.56% to +5.40% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+5.40% to +6.24% · SPY: 0 periods+5.40% to +6.24% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+6.24% to +7.08% · SPY: 0 periods+6.24% to +7.08% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+7.08% to +7.92% · SPY: 0 periods+7.08% to +7.92% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+7.92% to +8.76% · SPY: 0 periods+7.92% to +8.76% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-8.0%Weekly return+8.8%
Return range

Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.

Weekly return range comparisonHorizontal weekly return box plots for Long-term portfolio and SPY. The boxes span the middle fifty percent, center lines mark medians, whiskers end at the most extreme observations within one and a half times the interquartile range, and dots mark outliers.-9.4%-4.5%+0.4%+5.2%+10.1%
Long-term portfolio
SPY

Return quantiles

Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.

Selected weekly return percentiles for portfolio and benchmark
PercentileLong-term portfolioSPY
0th-8.03%-2.50%
1st-7.77%-2.46%
5th-5.96%-2.28%
10th-4.24%-2.05%
25th-2.15%-1.11%
50th+0.69%+0.40%
75th+2.86%+1.12%
90th+4.68%+3.11%
95th+6.31%+3.54%
99th+8.24%+4.21%
100th+8.76%+4.52%

Return frequency

How often completed monthly returns landed in each range.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Monthly return distributionDensity of monthly portfolio and SPY returns from -7.3%through +15.0%.0.011.222.4-7.27% to -6.16% · SPY: 0 periods-7.27% to -6.16% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-6.16% to -5.05% · SPY: 1 periods-6.16% to -5.05% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-5.05% to -3.93% · SPY: 0 periods-5.05% to -3.93% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-3.93% to -2.82% · SPY: 0 periods-3.93% to -2.82% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-2.82% to -1.70% · SPY: 0 periods-2.82% to -1.70% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-1.70% to -0.59% · SPY: 2 periods-1.70% to -0.59% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-0.59% to +0.52% · SPY: 1 periods-0.59% to +0.52% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+0.52% to +1.64% · SPY: 1 periods+0.52% to +1.64% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+1.64% to +2.75% · SPY: 1 periods+1.64% to +2.75% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+2.75% to +3.86% · SPY: 0 periods+2.75% to +3.86% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+3.86% to +4.98% · SPY: 0 periods+3.86% to +4.98% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+4.98% to +6.09% · SPY: 1 periods+4.98% to +6.09% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+6.09% to +7.21% · SPY: 0 periods+6.09% to +7.21% · Long-term portfolio: 2 periods+7.21% to +8.32% · SPY: 0 periods+7.21% to +8.32% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+8.32% to +9.43% · SPY: 0 periods+8.32% to +9.43% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+9.43% to +10.55% · SPY: 1 periods+9.43% to +10.55% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+10.55% to +11.66% · SPY: 0 periods+10.55% to +11.66% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+11.66% to +12.78% · SPY: 0 periods+11.66% to +12.78% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.78% to +13.89% · SPY: 0 periods+12.78% to +13.89% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.89% to +15.00% · SPY: 0 periods+13.89% to +15.00% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-7.3%Monthly return+15.0%
Return range

Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.

Monthly return range comparisonHorizontal monthly return box plots for Long-term portfolio and SPY. The boxes span the middle fifty percent, center lines mark medians, whiskers end at the most extreme observations within one and a half times the interquartile range, and dots mark outliers.-9.1%-2.6%+3.9%+10.3%+16.8%
Long-term portfolio
SPY

Return quantiles

Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.

Selected monthly return percentiles for portfolio and benchmark
PercentileLong-term portfolioSPY
0th-7.27%-5.20%
1st-7.04%-4.92%
5th-6.11%-3.83%
10th-4.95%-2.46%
25th-3.20%-0.97%
50th+1.07%+0.41%
75th+6.80%+3.21%
90th+9.34%+6.84%
95th+12.17%+8.67%
99th+14.44%+10.14%
100th+15.00%+10.51%

Return frequency

How often completed quarterly returns landed in each range.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Quarterly return distributionDensity of quarterly portfolio and SPY returns from -5.3%through +14.8%.0.016.633.2-5.27% to -4.27% · SPY: 1 periods-5.27% to -4.27% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-4.27% to -3.26% · SPY: 0 periods-4.27% to -3.26% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-3.26% to -2.26% · SPY: 0 periods-3.26% to -2.26% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-2.26% to -1.25% · SPY: 0 periods-2.26% to -1.25% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-1.25% to -0.25% · SPY: 0 periods-1.25% to -0.25% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods-0.25% to +0.76% · SPY: 0 periods-0.25% to +0.76% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+0.76% to +1.76% · SPY: 0 periods+0.76% to +1.76% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+1.76% to +2.77% · SPY: 1 periods+1.76% to +2.77% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+2.77% to +3.77% · SPY: 0 periods+2.77% to +3.77% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+3.77% to +4.78% · SPY: 0 periods+3.77% to +4.78% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+4.78% to +5.78% · SPY: 0 periods+4.78% to +5.78% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+5.78% to +6.79% · SPY: 0 periods+5.78% to +6.79% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+6.79% to +7.79% · SPY: 0 periods+6.79% to +7.79% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+7.79% to +8.80% · SPY: 0 periods+7.79% to +8.80% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+8.80% to +9.80% · SPY: 0 periods+8.80% to +9.80% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+9.80% to +10.81% · SPY: 0 periods+9.80% to +10.81% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+10.81% to +11.81% · SPY: 0 periods+10.81% to +11.81% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+11.81% to +12.82% · SPY: 0 periods+11.81% to +12.82% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.82% to +13.82% · SPY: 0 periods+12.82% to +13.82% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.82% to +14.83% · SPY: 1 periods+13.82% to +14.83% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods-5.3%Quarterly return+14.8%
Return range

Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.

Quarterly return range comparisonHorizontal quarterly return box plots for Long-term portfolio and SPY. The boxes span the middle fifty percent, center lines mark medians, whiskers end at the most extreme observations within one and a half times the interquartile range, and dots mark outliers.-6.9%-1.1%+4.8%+10.6%+16.4%
Long-term portfolio
SPY

Return quantiles

Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.

Selected quarterly return percentiles for portfolio and benchmark
PercentileLong-term portfolioSPY
0th-5.09%-5.27%
1st-4.85%-5.12%
5th-3.87%-4.49%
10th-2.66%-3.71%
25th+1.00%-1.35%
50th+7.10%+2.56%
75th+10.56%+8.70%
90th+12.63%+12.37%
95th+13.32%+13.60%
99th+13.88%+14.58%
100th+14.02%+14.83%

Return frequency

How often completed annual returns landed in each range.

  • Long-term portfolio
  • SPY
Annual return distributionDensity of annual portfolio and SPY returns from +11.6%through +15.9%.0.0231.0462.1+11.56% to +11.78% · SPY: 1 periods+11.56% to +11.78% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+11.78% to +11.99% · SPY: 0 periods+11.78% to +11.99% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+11.99% to +12.21% · SPY: 0 periods+11.99% to +12.21% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.21% to +12.43% · SPY: 0 periods+12.21% to +12.43% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.43% to +12.64% · SPY: 0 periods+12.43% to +12.64% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.64% to +12.86% · SPY: 0 periods+12.64% to +12.86% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+12.86% to +13.08% · SPY: 0 periods+12.86% to +13.08% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.08% to +13.29% · SPY: 0 periods+13.08% to +13.29% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.29% to +13.51% · SPY: 0 periods+13.29% to +13.51% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.51% to +13.73% · SPY: 0 periods+13.51% to +13.73% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.73% to +13.94% · SPY: 0 periods+13.73% to +13.94% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+13.94% to +14.16% · SPY: 0 periods+13.94% to +14.16% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+14.16% to +14.37% · SPY: 0 periods+14.16% to +14.37% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+14.37% to +14.59% · SPY: 0 periods+14.37% to +14.59% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+14.59% to +14.81% · SPY: 0 periods+14.59% to +14.81% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+14.81% to +15.02% · SPY: 0 periods+14.81% to +15.02% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+15.02% to +15.24% · SPY: 0 periods+15.02% to +15.24% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+15.24% to +15.46% · SPY: 0 periods+15.24% to +15.46% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+15.46% to +15.67% · SPY: 0 periods+15.46% to +15.67% · Long-term portfolio: 0 periods+15.67% to +15.89% · SPY: 0 periods+15.67% to +15.89% · Long-term portfolio: 1 periods+11.6%Annual return+15.9%
Return range

Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.

Annual return range comparisonHorizontal annual return box plots for Long-term portfolio and SPY. The boxes span the middle fifty percent, center lines mark medians, whiskers end at the most extreme observations within one and a half times the interquartile range, and dots mark outliers.-1.3%+3.3%+7.9%+12.6%+17.2%
Long-term portfolio
SPY

Return quantiles

Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.

Selected annual return percentiles for portfolio and benchmark
PercentileLong-term portfolioSPY
0th+15.89%+11.56%
1st+15.89%+11.56%
5th+15.89%+11.56%
10th+15.89%+11.56%
25th+15.89%+11.56%
50th+15.89%+11.56%
75th+15.89%+11.56%
90th+15.89%+11.56%
95th+15.89%+11.56%
99th+15.89%+11.56%
100th+15.89%+11.56%

About these return metrics

Portfolio, benchmark, risk, drawdown, calendar, and distribution figures use all history. All summary relative metrics—alpha, beta, correlation, R-squared, tracking error, information ratio, and capture—use the latest latest trailing window (full analysis span); historical CAPM residuals use a trailing beta estimated separately for each return date. The synthetic first benchmark return is excluded from regression estimates.

Risk-adjusted figures annualize 252 daily periods and use a 3.96% annual risk-free rate. This report covers completed returns; current value, taxes, and forecasts are separate.