Long-term portfolio
Generated July 17, 2026 at 8:50 PM UTC · benchmarked against SPY
Performance by timeframe
Returns for all history.
| Period | Portfolio | SPY | Excess | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +1.8% | -0.5% | +2.3% | +2.2% |
| 7D | +5.4% | -0.1% | +5.5% | +5.5% |
| 30D | +11.4% | +0.1% | +11.3% | +11.3% |
| 3M | +26.5% | +7.0% | +19.5% | +19.8% |
| 6M | +24.2% | +8.5% | +15.6% | +16.3% |
| All | +71.4% | +9.2% | +62.2% | +59.8% |
Cumulative growth
Portfolio and SPY growth are rebased so no current or historical balances are exposed.
- Portfolio
- SPY
Daily returns
Daily percentage return beside SPY.
- Portfolio
- SPY
Daily out / under-performance
Portfolio return minus SPY return. Positive bars indicate outperformance.
Return analytics
Return, risk, drawdown, consistency, and benchmark metrics from completed daily return periods.
- Analysis span
- All history · Jan 5, 2026 to Jul 16, 2026
- Portfolio periods
- 133
- Comparison periods
- 133
- Regression sample
- Full analysis span · 132
Alpha, sensitivity, and capture
All relative metric cards use the selected regression sample (full analysis span; 132 comparable returns).
Analysis-span relative wealth and CAPM residual
Relative wealth is rebased at the start of all history. The CAPM residual begins with the selected regression sample (full analysis span).
- Relative wealth
- CAPM residual
Return and risk
Ratios use completed daily returns from all history.
| Metric | Long-term portfolio | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +71.4% | +9.2% |
| CAGR | +177.6% | +18.1% |
| Annualized volatility | +66.8% | +13.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.74 | 0.99 |
| Sortino ratio | 6.16 | 1.44 |
| Maximum drawdown | -15.6% | -9.1% |
| Calmar ratio | 11.40 | 1.98 |
| Ulcer index | +7.4% | +2.6% |
| Positive-period rate | 53.4% | 53.0% |
| Best period | +44.4% | +2.9% |
| Worst period | -6.1% | -2.6% |
| Average daily return | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| Average gain | +1.9% | +0.7% |
| Average loss | -1.2% | -0.6% |
| Payoff ratio | 1.61 | 1.09 |
| Profit factor | 1.85 | 1.23 |
| Daily VaR (95%) | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Daily CVaR (95%) | -4.1% | -1.8% |
| Tail ratio | 1.28 | 0.84 |
| Skew | 8.67 | -0.06 |
| Excess kurtosis | 91.08 | 1.03 |
| Longest gain streak | 4 | 7 |
| Longest loss streak | 7 | 4 |
Drawdowns
Each line shows distance below its own high-water mark within all history.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
Long-term portfolio
| Rank | Depth | Started | Trough | Recovered | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -15.6% | Feb 9, 2026 | Mar 30, 202649 days to trough | May 8, 202639 days from trough | 88 days |
| 2 | -12.7% | Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 25, 202622 days to trough | Jul 9, 202614 days from trough | 36 days |
| 3 | -7.7% | Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 20, 202614 days to trough | Feb 2, 202613 days from trough | 27 days |
| 4 | -2.0% | May 29, 2026 | Jun 1, 20263 days to trough | Jun 2, 20261 days from trough | 4 days |
| 5 | -0.8% | May 18, 2026 | May 18, 20260 days to trough | May 20, 20262 days from trough | 2 days |
| 6 | -0.8% | Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 14, 20260 days to trough | Jul 15, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
| 7 | -0.3% | Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 10, 20260 days to trough | Jul 13, 20263 days from trough | 3 days |
| 8 | -0.2% | May 14, 2026 | May 14, 20260 days to trough | May 15, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
| 9 | -0.2% | May 11, 2026 | May 11, 20260 days to trough | May 12, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
| 10 | -0.2% | Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5, 20260 days to trough | Feb 6, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
SPY
| Rank | Depth | Started | Trough | Recovered | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -9.1% | Jan 28, 2026 | Mar 30, 202661 days to trough | Apr 15, 202616 days from trough | 77 days |
| 2 | -4.5% | Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 10, 20267 days to trough | Ongoing | 43 days |
| 3 | -2.5% | Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 20, 20267 days to trough | Jan 27, 20267 days from trough | 14 days |
| 4 | -1.9% | May 15, 2026 | May 19, 20264 days to trough | May 26, 20267 days from trough | 11 days |
| 5 | -0.9% | Apr 20, 2026 | Apr 21, 20261 days to trough | Apr 22, 20261 days from trough | 2 days |
| 6 | -0.5% | Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 29, 20261 days to trough | Apr 30, 20261 days from trough | 2 days |
| 7 | -0.4% | Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23, 20260 days to trough | Apr 24, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
| 8 | -0.4% | May 4, 2026 | May 4, 20260 days to trough | May 5, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
| 9 | -0.3% | Jan 7, 2026 | Jan 8, 20261 days to trough | Jan 9, 20261 days from trough | 2 days |
| 10 | -0.3% | May 7, 2026 | May 7, 20260 days to trough | May 8, 20261 days from trough | 1 days |
Rolling risk and efficiency
6 months windows use exactly 126 completed return periods.
Rolling alpha
Annualized CAPM residual return within each window.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY alpha reference
- Long-term portfolio average
- SPY alpha reference average
Rolling beta
How strongly returns moved with the benchmark in each window.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY beta reference
- Long-term portfolio average
- SPY beta reference average
Rolling volatility
Annualized variability of daily return periods.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
- Long-term portfolio average
- SPY average
Rolling Sharpe
Excess return per unit of total variability.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
- Long-term portfolio average
- SPY average
Rolling Sortino
Excess return measured only against downside variation.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
- Long-term portfolio average
- SPY average
Calendar returns
Calendar buckets use completed returns within all history.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +40.2%+40% | +1.8%+2% | -8.5%-9% | +6.9%+7% | +15.0%+15% | -7.3%-7% | +15.2%+15% | N/AN/A | N/AN/A | N/AN/A | N/AN/A | N/AN/A |
Calendar-year comparison
Portfolio and benchmark returns are compounded independently within each year.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
| Year | Long-term portfolio | SPY | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +71.4% | +9.2% | +62.2% |
Return distribution
Counts, quartiles, and outliers use the selected return granularity within the report analysis window.
Return frequency
How often completed daily returns landed in each range.
- Long-term portfolio
- SPY
Return range
Whiskers show the observed return range; dots are outliers.
Return quantiles
Observed outcomes at selected points from the worst through the best periods.
| Percentile | Long-term portfolio | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 0th | -6.12% | -2.58% |
| 1st | -4.87% | -1.96% |
| 5th | -2.37% | -1.53% |
| 10th | -1.80% | -1.17% |
| 25th | -0.77% | -0.37% |
| 50th | +0.13% | +0.07% |
| 75th | +1.08% | +0.59% |
| 90th | +2.62% | +1.01% |
| 95th | +3.04% | +1.29% |
| 99th | +4.59% | +2.35% |
| 100th | +44.39% | +2.91% |